2. Construction machinery industry: The current feedback from large enterprises is that orders fell by about 15-20% from June to July. In terms of the structure of domestic and foreign orders, the decline in domestic orders is greater than the decline in foreign orders. For construction machinery, at present, it is mainly the slowdown and decrease of increase in domestic infrastructure projects and real estate projects, and the driving forward of the entire machinery industry is mainly: excavators and loaders, of which medium-excavation and small-scale Digging is dominant. So looking at this year, the growth rate of the infrastructure and real estate industries has slowed down, and the domestic machinery consumption growth space for auxiliary equipment is relatively limited. Fortunately, the current overseas consumption continues to be maintained. Therefore, from a qualitative point of view, construction machinery has shown a short-term peak. Without special circumstances, its downward trend will remain at least one quarter. 3. Heavy trucks: The rise of heavy trucks in the past two years is mainly due to two reasons: 1. Frequent increases in vehicle emission standards have led to the alternation of national 4, national 5, and national 6 leading to untimely market follow-up, and increased inventory leading to a decline in consumption ; 2. When overloading is restricted, the capacity will drop, and the quantity will be used to make up. Therefore, driven by the incident, the upward momentum of the heavy-duty truck industry seems to have peaked. Even the forthcoming new national 6 standards cannot stimulate the market. After all, trucks are not passenger cars, they are all rigid consumption, so from a qualitative point of view, it will peak in the short term.
3. Containers and shipbuilding: Since last year, the import and export trade has shown a significant increase. Last year, it was mainly imported, and this year it was mainly export. In the post-epidemic era, the urgency of overseas recovery is greater than that of China, but China is a big manufacturing country, so buying from China is also the most important way. According to the global vaccine penetration rate and the universal immune barrier, it will still take one quarter before it can be expected to be achieved. If the unemployment rate in overseas countries does not drop significantly, there will continue to be room for consumption to maintain. According to company feedback, new orders received by shipping companies have risen significantly recently, while orders for containers have been received in September. Therefore, qualitatively speaking, the month-on-month rise and flatness of these two industries must not be a problem.
4. Substrates for cold rolling: As far as the utilization rate of Mysteel cold rolling production line is concerned, it is still maintained at a relatively high level of more than 80%, and there is no sign of decline in the short term. However, judging from the recent consumption of automobiles and home appliances, there is indeed a pattern of joint decline in production and sales, which also reflects the off-season consumption. In addition, the tension of automotive chips was originally expected to be relieved in the first quarter of next year. Even if it is advanced now, it will be difficult to ease the situation in the third quarter of this year. At least in June to July, it will still show a decline in consumption. In addition, the cancellation of export tax rebates is in line with stabilizing domestic prices and suppressing imported inflation. Therefore, when the policy is promulgated, cold-plated exports that were overheated in the previous period will also return to a relatively low level. The current cold and hot price difference is maintained at 600+ yuan/ton, so although it will not immediately reduce the production of the cold system, its basis will be shrunk. Qualitatively speaking, the room for growth is limited. From the above supply side, the space for reduction is limited. From the perspective of consumption, most industries have fallen flat or slightly, and the reflection of off-season consumption is relatively clear. This will also accumulate market inventory, and watch demand will show a downward trend. But will the market price fall because of the contradiction between supply and demand? If the market is based on current fundamentals, it is very difficult to rise. From a personal research point of view, the level of "emergency events" will be greater than "fundamental", while recent emergencies and expectations are nothing more than "environmental protection review" and "safe production before the 100th anniversary of the founding of the party." This will lead to a pattern of cost support and a decline in supply, which will support market prices in a disguised manner in the off-season. Therefore, as far as market trends are concerned, upward adjustments will still be made as expected. But it is worth noting! The market situation from April to May also gives us vigilance. Although the "reality" and "expectation" will be stronger, they should not be too fast. Otherwise, the upstream and downstream will be disconnected, and there will be substantial adjustments. In the end, the strength will be greater. Space, there are still opportunities in the second half of the year.
Later market concerns:1. Electricity consumption and gaps. In the past years, the grid load was too large, but this year it is lacking! (For the classification of electricity consumption, smelters>electric furnaces>manufacturing); 2. With the beginning of universal immunization abroad, the export market is expected to decline, followed by the adjustment of market inflation peaking; 3. The supply of hot rolling remains There is room for new additions, especially from July to August. During the off-season period, it is recommended to reasonably control inventory to reduce risks, and use financial tools to avoid risks when appropriate.